Problems With Future Plug-In Hybrids

Ah, the plug-in hybrid! It has been long-heralded as the answer to the oil problem and the release of some of the first models has been hotly anticipated by serious hybrid enthusiasts.

So, what exactly is the difference between the hybrids currently on the road and plug-in hybrids?
Basically, the hybrids on the road today use their electric power when they can, and use gas as the primary fuel source. The fuel efficiency when compared to a standard vehicle is still amazing, but when the hybrid becomes a plug-in hybrid, the reported fuel economy shoots sky high. Plug-ins use electric power first and then fuel. The batteries are built to hold more electric power and so can use electricity for more powerful work.

What are the potential problems?
In the next few years, an abundance of plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) will be hitting the showrooms and the roads of America. Almost every major automaker is getting in on the game because they anticipate that PHEVs will begin to account for an increasing percentage of sales in the coming years. The short-list of who’s bringing a plug-in to the table:

* General Motors (the Volt)
* Chrysler has three in the works
* Nissan (EV-02)
* Mitsubishi (iMiev)
* Tesla (Roadster)
* Toyota (Plug-in Prius)
* Ford (Plug-In Hybrid Ford Escape)

Like any new technology, early adopters of the plug-in hybrids will probably experience a few kinks in the performance of their cars. However, if the early adopters don’t buy the new plug-ins and help generate a mainstream demand as they did with current hybrids, the whole technology could disappear from showroom floors as auto manufacturers see that no one is buying.

The potential problems those early buyers may face fall into three main categories:

1. Cost. Current lithium-ion batteries don’t respond well to large swings in charging cycles. The plug-in hybrid concept depends on a battery that can handle large swings well. Large lithium-ions can handle them better, but often, the huge size can be prohibitive to keeping the design of the car small and light. Lithium-ion batteries are very expensive so if the original battery is not built to withstand large charge cycle swings, battery replacement may have to occur more frequently than with other types of cars.
2. Life-span. This excerpt from Popular Mechanics best explains this potential pit-fall:
The current Prius, which uses nickel-metal-hydride batteries, has a 10-year warranty on the battery pack, but Toyota’s Reinert admitted that such a guarantee would be very difficult to offer on the electrified version. “If the warranty is only three years, are customers going to accept that?” he asked. Unless battery life can be improved, plug-in cars might succeed in reducing fuel cost per mile, only to transfer the burden of capital costs of imported batteries to the owner.
3. Available Technology. As more and more PHEVs hit the road, more and more people will need to charge them at home or at work. This could overwhelm an electric grid if it is not properly prepared,

It seems to me that PHEVs are indeed the wave of the future, but I suspect we might all be better off if automakers spent the next few years perfecting their design and campaigning for a solid infrastructure. That would improve the odds for success of these cars when they do start selling. What do you think?

Paris Auto Show Features More Hybrids

Updates and wrap up from the Paris Auto Show

Paris Auto Show 2008Last week, automakers from around the world converged in Paris to showcase their newest concept cars and innovations. Today (October 19th) is the last day of the show and it is evident that small is in and that hybrids are all the rage. The Paris Auto Show comes on the heels of major economic downturn in the United States, thereby making small, fuel-efficient cars even more appealing to consumers who have watched gas prices rise, stocks tumble and the government bicker over how to solve the situation.

Here are just a few things that have the industry buzzing in Paris:

* Honda’s new Insight. Due in the U.S. in 2010, the latest reincarnation of the Insight will again be going head-to-head with Toyota’s Prius. Priced around $20,000, the Insight will be about $3,000 cheaper than the Prius, and will be roomier than the earlier version. Rather than seating just two, the 2010 Insight will hold five passengers.
* Mercedes S-class mild hybrid. When this luxury vehicle arrives in the U.S. in 2009, it may just be the most affordable luxury vehicle yet. Though the hybrid technology is not full, the presence of a lithium-ion battery does increase fuel efficiency.
* A green Lamborghini? A new Lamborghini four-door concept, the Estoque, may or may not be a hybrid when it goes into production next year. The top-of-the-line automaker is remaining mum on whether the new car will feature hybrid technology or high-performance diesel.
* Audi gets 62 miles per gallon. The new Audi concept car is boasting high performance and high fuel efficiency. The Sportback is shooting to go about 62 miles in electric only mode – a feat not yet conquered by any other hybrid on the market.

One thing is for sure, there are more hybrid and green technologies on display at the Paris auto show than we have ever seen before. The trend toward a more fuel-efficient and eco-friendly vehicle is here to stay. This has brought changes in what’s under the hood as well as design changes. Increased aerodynamics and lighter frames are bringing even larger cars and SUVs into the green future.